Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future

I strongly recommend that everyone read this article in Frontiers in Conservation Science, by a group of prominent scientists who argue that:

”It is therefore incumbent on experts in any discipline that deals with the future of the biosphere and human well-being to eschew reticence, avoid sugar-coating the overwhelming challenges ahead and “tell it like it is.” Anything else is misleading at best, or negligent and potentially lethal for the human enterprise at worst.”

As one might imagine with Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich as co-authors, runaway population growth plays a prominent role in their thesis, as does overconsumption.  While they “contend that only a realistic appreciation of the colossal challenges facing the international community might allow it to chart a less-ravaged future,” they are short on any real productive path forward.

I wonder what they might think about my proposal in the Journal of Population and Sustainability to target a Total Fertility Rate of 1.5 by 2030.  This is a practical, if audacious, goal which if met would actually enable us to meet the larger suite of Sustainable Development Goals that we are currently managing to overshoot.  Bend the global population curve.  Save our planet and our species. 

As a side note, it is heartening that Greta Thunberg actually tweeted out a Guardian story about this article.  It seems that she is beginning to embrace the realities of how runaway population growth is driving climate change, and how we must stabilize and then decrease population if we are to avert climate catastrophe - as was clear in the World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency, November 2019.